Possible relevant growth in the economies of some African countries in 2021

The year 2021 is favorable for the economy of various countries in Africa. According to a study carried out by the World Bank, after a contraction of approximately 3.7% in 2020, growth of 2.7% is expected in sub-Saharan Africa this year, provided that investment continues to support this recovery. In this way, several countries could emerge again after a year marked by the COVID-19 crisis.

The authors of the World Bank study suggest that the recovery of private consumption and investment will be slower than expected, and growth in exports will accelerate gradually.

There are several countries that generate high expectations regarding their recovery. Rwanda is expected to grow from -0.2% to 5.7%, Ivory Coast from 1.8% to 5.5%, Kenya from 1% to 6.9% and Benin from 2% to 5%.

In terms of sectors, the study first highlights the favorable situation of agricultural exporters; an easier recovery is expected in the sector due to the increase in international prices for countries exporting agricultural products.

Regarding the oil export sector, the assumptions are not so optimistic, as prices are not expected in international markets.

In relation to the tourism sector, strongly affected by the crisis, a small and slow recovery is expected, depending directly on the resumption of international travel. Currently many countries are forced to increase restrictive measures due to the increase in cases. Nonetheless, access to the vaccine is seen as a crucial factor in accelerating the revival of tourism, which is why the World Bank study sheds some light on the tourism sector.